This market was automatically settled Oct 30, 2026, 9:24 AM UTC

Will the NOAA planetary Kp index for the last full 3-hour UTC period before 2026-10-30 09:03 UTC be at or above 1.67?

Settled Market
Miscellaneous
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x02d4...fe6a • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:Yes

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

Yes50.0%
$0.50/share
No50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Oct 28, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Oct 30, 2026, 9:03 AM UTC
Settled:Oct 30, 2026, 9:24 AM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

Yes

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's walk through this step by step. The market question is about the NOAA planetary Kp index for the last full 3-hour period before 2026-10-30 09:03 UTC. The resolution criteria specify using the NOAA SWPC's JSON data, which records each 3-hour period starting at 00:00, 03:00, etc. First, I need to determine the start time S of the last full 3-hour period before 09:03 UTC. The example given in the criteria says if the close is at 14:37, S would be 09:00. So applying that here: round 09:03 down to the nearest 3-hour mark, which is 09:00, then subtract 3 hours to get 06:00 UTC. So S is 2026-10-30 06:00 UTC. Both resolvers arrived at this same S value, so that's correct. Next, they check the Kp value for that time. Both resolvers reference the NOAA SWPC data and found the Kp to be 2.33 at 06:00 UTC. The threshold is 1.67. Since 2.33 is greater than 1.67, the answer should be "Yes". Resolver 1 and Resolver 2 both agree on the steps and the result. They retrieved the correct data from the specified source, and the calculation is straightforward. There's no conflicting information here. The market closed at 09:03 UTC, and the data needed is from 06:00 UTC, which is within the required timeframe. Since the current time is 09:22 UTC, the data is now available as the process was completed after market close but within the resolution criteria's guidelines, which allow for evidence after the close time. No unknown factors are present. Both resolvers used the correct method and data source. Therefore, the correct answer is 0 (Yes). </think> ANSWER: Yes

Settlement Criteria:

Use the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center planetary K-index JSON, which has one row per 3-hour period with the fields time_tag (UTC), Kp, a_running and station_count. Each row's time_tag is the start of its period: 00:00, 03:00, 06:00, 09:00, 12:00, 15:00, 18:00 or 21:00 UTC. Round 2026-10-30 09:03 UTC down to a multiple of 3 hours UTC and subtract 3 hours to get S, the start of the last full period that ended at or before 2026-10-30 09:03 UTC (for example, a close at 14:37 UTC gives S = 09:00 UTC). Take the Kp value of the row whose time_tag is S and compare it with 1.67. Answer "Yes" if it is at or above 1.67, otherwise "No". Use only this data, not other Kp estimates. Valid outcomes (answer with exactly one): "Yes" or "No".

Data Sources:
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/products/noaa-planetary-k-index.json

Creator Stats


Creator:0x02d4...fe6a
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

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