This market was automatically settled Nov 6, 2026, 3:36 PM UTC

Will the BLS revise August and September 2026 payrolls down by 1,000 or more combined in its October report?

Settled Market
Economics
LMSR
Automated
By: 0xFeb8...814D • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 3, 2026, 12:43 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 5, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC
Settled:Nov 6, 2026, 3:36 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's tackle this. The market question is whether the BLS will revise August and September 2026 payrolls down by 1,000 or more combined in the October report. The resolution depends on the October BLS release. Resolver 1 and Resolver 2 both report that the BLS released the October 2026 Employment Situation on schedule. Both note that August was revised up by 53,000 and September up by 31,000, leading to a combined +84,000 revision. The criteria require a combined downward revision of at least 1,000. Since both resolvers confirm the revision is upward, "No" wins. They both arrived at the same answer and their evidence seems consistent. The BLS data is authoritative, and there's no mention of access issues. The resolution time checks out since the release was on the 6th at the correct time. No conflicting info. So the answer is definitely 1. </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the BLS Employment Situation release for October 2026, published 2026-11-06 at 8:30 AM EST (13:30 UTC), shows that total nonfarm payroll employment for August and September combined is 1,000 or more lower than previously reported. - "No": Wins if the combined net revision is smaller than -1,000 in size, zero or positive, or if the release has not been published by 2026-11-07 05:00 UTC (12:00 AM EST). Clarifications: - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation release for October 2026 is scheduled for 2026-11-06 at 8:30 AM EST (13:30 UTC); the figure is the one first published in that release, and later revisions do not count. - If the release has not been published by 2026-11-07 05:00 UTC (12:00 AM EST), the market resolves "No". - The combined revision is the sentence in the release summary ("employment in August and September combined is X lower/higher than previously reported"); if it is absent, sum the two monthly revisions against the previously published +133,000 (August) and +29,000 (September).

Data Sources:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Creator Stats


Creator:0xFeb8...814D
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Markets Settled:0
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Settle Percentage:0%

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