This market was automatically settled Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 PM UTC

Will it be warmer at Le Baluchon in Quebec (07:00 ET, breakfast) than in central London (noon) at 2026-11-05 12:00 UTC on Thursday 5 November 2026?

Settled Market
Miscellaneous
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x02d4...fe6a • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 4, 2026, 5:06 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 5, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Settled:Nov 5, 2026, 12:35 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user wants to know if the temperature at Le Baluchon in Quebec at 07:00 ET (which is 12:00 UTC since ET is UTC-5) will be warmer than the temperature in central London at the same UTC time (noon for London since it's UTC+0). The resolution criteria specify using the Open-Meteo API for data from both locations at exactly 2026-11-05T12:00 UTC. Resolver 1 observed the data up to 11:00 UTC. For Quebec, the temperatures were around 7.5 to 7.7°C at 10:00 and 11:00 UTC, and they expected the 12:00 UTC value to be around 7.7–8°C. For London, the temperatures were increasing, hitting 10.4 and 10.6°C at 10:00 and 11:00 UTC, with an expected rise to about 10.7°C. Based on the trend, they concluded London would be warmer, hence "No". Resolver 2 provided actual API data for the exact 12:00 UTC time. Le Baluchon's temperature was 7.7°C and London's was 10.8°C. Since 7.7 is not greater than 10.8, they also answered "No". Both resolvers independently reached the same conclusion. Resolver 1 used the trend to predict the 12:00 value, while Resolver 2 had the exact data point already. The exact data confirms the trend analysis. Since the temperatures at the specified time meet the criteria, the answer is "No". </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Use the Open-Meteo forecast API with hourly=temperature_2m and timezone=UTC, limited to the single hour 2026-11-05 12:00 UTC (time 2026-11-05T12:00), for two places: Le Baluchon in Saint-Paulin, Quebec (latitude 46.4514, longitude -72.9992; first source) and central London (latitude 51.5074, longitude -0.1278; second source). For past hours this API returns the weather models' analysis, not a station reading; before that hour it shows the current forecast. Take the temperature_2m value in the row stamped 2026-11-05T12:00 from each source. Answer "Yes" if the Le Baluchon value is strictly greater than the London value, otherwise "No" (a tie is "No"). Valid outcomes (answer with exactly one): "Yes" or "No".

Data Sources:
https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=46.4514&longitude=-72.9992&hourly=temperature_2m&timezone=UTC&start_hour=2026-11-05T12:00&end_hour=2026-11-05T12:00https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=51.5074&longitude=-0.1278&hourly=temperature_2m&timezone=UTC&start_hour=2026-11-05T12:00&end_hour=2026-11-05T12:00

Creator Stats


Creator:0x02d4...fe6a
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created