This market was automatically settled Oct 31, 2026, 2:05 AM UTC

Will a magnitude 5.5 or stronger earthquake strike anywhere on Earth between 14:00 UTC Friday 30 October and 01:00 UTC Saturday 31 October 2026?

Settled Market
Miscellaneous
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x02d4...fe6a • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Oct 30, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC
Trading Closed:Oct 30, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Settled:Oct 31, 2026, 2:05 AM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user is asking if there was a magnitude 5.5 or stronger earthquake anywhere on Earth between 14:00 UTC on October 30 and 01:00 UTC on October 31, 2026. The resolution criteria specify using the USGS earthquake catalog, specifically their FDSN event service. The answer should be "Yes" if the count is 1 or more, otherwise "No." Both resolvers have checked the USGS data. Resolver 1 used both the count and query endpoints and found that the count is 0. Resolver 2 also checked both endpoints, confirming the count is 0 and there are no qualifying earthquakes. Both resolvers agree that the count is zero, which means the answer is "No." The current time is past the end of the measurement window (02:03 UTC on the 31st), so the data is complete. There's no indication that either resolver missed any events or made an error in their query parameters. The USGS is the specified data source, and both used it correctly. No conflicting information here. Both resolvers independently arrived at the same conclusion. The evidence from the official source shows zero earthquakes meeting the criteria. Therefore, the market resolves to "No." </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Use the USGS earthquake catalog (FDSN event service). The count endpoint returns {"count": N}, the number of earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or more with an origin time from 2026-10-30T14:00:00 UTC up to 2026-10-31T01:00:00 UTC; the query endpoint lists the same events. Use the magnitudes as shown when checked. Answer "Yes" if the count is 1 or more, otherwise "No". Valid outcomes (answer with exactly one): "Yes" or "No".

Data Sources:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/count?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-30T14:00:00&endtime=2026-10-31T01:00:00&minmagnitude=5.5https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-30T14:00:00&endtime=2026-10-31T01:00:00&minmagnitude=5.5&orderby=time-asc

Creator Stats


Creator:0x02d4...fe6a
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

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