This market was automatically settled Oct 31, 2026, 3:34 AM UTC

Will the English Wikipedia article 'Halloween' be edited 3 or more times between 18:45 UTC Friday 30 October and 02:45 UTC Saturday 31 October 2026?

Settled Market
Miscellaneous
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x02d4...fe6a • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Oct 30, 2026, 9:30 AM UTC
Trading Closed:Oct 30, 2026, 6:45 PM UTC
Settled:Oct 31, 2026, 3:34 AM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's tackle this. The market question is about whether the English Wikipedia article 'Halloween' will be edited at least three times between 18:45 UTC on October 30 and 02:45 UTC on October 31, 2026. The resolution criteria specify using the Wikipedia API to query revisions in that time window. If the API response includes a "revisions" list with three or more entries, the answer is "Yes"; otherwise, "No". If there's no "revisions" list, it means zero edits, hence "No". Looking at the resolver reports. Both Resolver 1 and Resolver 2 checked the API. Resolver 1 says the API returned no "revisions" list, hence zero edits. They also checked the timestamps of the most recent revisions before the window and found they were all earlier than 18:45. Resolver 2 also found the API response lacked a "revisions" list, directly concluding no edits occurred in the window. Both resolvers agree on the outcome: "No", which is option 1. The API evidence from both seems to align, and their reasoning is sound based on the criteria. There's no conflicting information, so the answer should be 1. </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Use the English Wikipedia API query for the revisions of the article 'Halloween' from 2026-10-30T18:45:00Z to 2026-10-31T02:45:00Z, oldest first, capped at 3 results (rvlimit=3). Each revision in the list has a timestamp and user; if there are more than 3, the response also has a "continue" element. If the page has no "revisions" list, there were no edits in the window. Answer "Yes" if the list contains 3 revisions, otherwise "No". Valid outcomes (answer with exactly one): "Yes" or "No".

Data Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/api.php?action=query&prop=revisions&titles=Halloween&rvprop=timestamp%7Cuser&rvlimit=3&rvdir=newer&rvstart=2026-10-30T18:45:00Z&rvend=2026-10-31T02:45:00Z&format=json&formatversion=2

Creator Stats


Creator:0x02d4...fe6a
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created