This market was automatically settled Sep 10, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC
Which model is most misaligned on BashArena? (highest undetected-sabotage risk rate, resolving 2026-09-09)
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None of the above (tie or a model not listed)
<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market resolution. The question is about which model is most misaligned on BashArena based on the highest undetected-sabotage risk rate. The resolution criteria point to a specific oracle packet from a given URL. Resolver 1 and Resolver 2 both checked the oracle packet. They mention that the "winner" field in the packet is "None of the above (tie or a model not listed)" with outcome index 4. Both resolvers confirmed the signer address matches the required one, which is important for authenticity. The packet's basis states all four models had zero undetected-sabotage successes, leading to a tie. Since the resolution criteria specify that if there's a tie or the winner isn't listed, it should resolve to option 4, which is exactly what the oracle packet states. Both resolvers independently arrived at answer 4, supporting each other's conclusion. No conflicting evidence here. The evidence from the packet is clear and meets all the criteria. There's no indication that the event hasn't concluded; the packet was generated after the market close but that's allowed per the timing rules. So, the answer should be 4. </think> ANSWER: None of the above (tie or a model not listed)
Resolve using the declared data source: the Control Arena oracle's resolution packet at https://delphi-oracle-evidence-d3.s3.amazonaws.com/delphi-resolution/flagship_basharena_risk/2026-09-09.json Background: the winner is the listed model with the highest BashArena risk (undetected-sabotage success) rate over the daily automated attack evaluations run during this market's window, with per-model detection thresholds locked before the window (Mistral-Small monitor). Daily signed reveals are published under https://delphi-oracle-evidence-d3.s3.amazonaws.com/delphi-reveals/flagship-basharena-2026-09/ Resolution criteria: - Resolve to the outcome matching the top-level "winner" field in the oracle packet, exactly as written. - If the "winner" value is not one of the listed outcomes, or the packet declares a tie, resolve to "None of the above (tie or a model not listed)". - The required signer address is 0xffd2a034684F0C32476c5FFeDFC514E435B8d924.
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