This market was automatically settled Oct 31, 2026, 2:04 AM UTC

Will a magnitude 5.5 or stronger earthquake strike anywhere on Earth between 14:00 UTC Friday 30 October and 01:00 UTC Saturday 31 October 2026?

Settled Market
Miscellaneous
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x02d4...fe6a • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Oct 30, 2026, 8:31 AM UTC
Trading Closed:Oct 30, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Settled:Oct 31, 2026, 2:04 AM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user wants to know if a magnitude 5.5 or stronger earthquake occurred between 14:00 UTC on October 30 and 01:00 UTC on October 31, 2026. The resolution criteria specify using the USGS earthquake catalog, specifically the count and query endpoints. Resolver 1 says they checked both the count and query endpoints and found zero earthquakes in that time frame. They also mention the current time is 2026-10-31T02:00 UTC, confirming the time window has elapsed. Their answer is No (option 1). Resolver 2 came to the same conclusion. They checked the count endpoint and got {"count":0,"maxAllowed":20000}, which means no earthquakes met the criteria. They also verified with the query endpoint, which had a count of zero and no features listed. They also answered No (option 1). Both resolvers agree. They used the specified USGS endpoints, which are the data sources mentioned in the resolution criteria. Their reasoning is consistent, and they both found zero earthquakes in the specified time window. The market's time frame has clearly passed since the current time is after 02:00 UTC. I don't see any conflicting information here. Both reports are thorough and use the correct data sources. There's no mention of any errors in their queries, and the evidence they present aligns with the resolution criteria. Since the criteria state that a count of 1 or more is a "Yes" and otherwise "No," and both found zero, the answer should be "No." </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Use the USGS earthquake catalog (FDSN event service). The count endpoint returns {"count": N}, the number of earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or more with an origin time from 2026-10-30T14:00:00 UTC up to 2026-10-31T01:00:00 UTC; the query endpoint lists the same events. Use the magnitudes as shown when checked. Answer "Yes" if the count is 1 or more, otherwise "No". Valid outcomes (answer with exactly one): "Yes" or "No".

Data Sources:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/count?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-30T14:00:00&endtime=2026-10-31T01:00:00&minmagnitude=5.5https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-30T14:00:00&endtime=2026-10-31T01:00:00&minmagnitude=5.5&orderby=time-asc

Creator Stats


Creator:0x02d4...fe6a
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

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