This market was automatically settled Oct 31, 2026, 3:34 AM UTC

Will Bitcoin block 973,900 be mined at or before 2026-10-31 02:45 UTC?

Settled Market
Miscellaneous
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x02d4...fe6a • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:Yes

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Final Outcome

Yes50.0%
$0.50/share
No50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Oct 30, 2026, 8:33 AM UTC
Trading Closed:Oct 31, 2026, 2:45 AM UTC
Settled:Oct 31, 2026, 3:34 AM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

Yes

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user is asking if Bitcoin block 973,900 will be mined at or before 2026-10-31 02:45 UTC. The resolution criteria say to check the mempool.space blocks API for height 973900. If the block exists and its timestamp is less than or equal to 1793414700 (which is the Unix time for the deadline), the answer is "Yes", else "No". Resolver 1 says that block 973900 has been mined. They provided details from the API: the block's timestamp is 1793408550, which is indeed less than 1793414700. They calculated the difference as around 1 hour and 42 minutes, so the condition is satisfied. They concluded with "Yes" (option 0). Resolver 2 also checked the same API and confirmed the block exists with the same timestamp. They even cross-verified using Blockstream’s API to make sure the data is consistent. They similarly concluded that the timestamp is within the required cutoff and answered "Yes" as well. Both resolvers agree on the answer and the evidence. The key points here are that the block exists and the timestamp is under the threshold. The fact that both resolvers used the specified API and even an additional source (Blockstream) for confirmation adds credibility. There's no discrepancy in their findings. Also, the current time (2026-10-31T03:23:41Z) is after the market close time, but since the resolution is determined by the API's data which shows the block was mined before the deadline, the timing is correct. I don't see any reason to reject either report. The evidence directly addresses the criteria given. Since both resolvers' conclusions align, and the data supports that the block was mined within the required time, the answer should be "Yes". </think> Both resolvers confirm via the mempool.space API (and cross-checked with Blockstream's API) that Bitcoin block 973,900 exists with a timestamp of 1793408550, which is 6,150 seconds (1h42m) before the 1793414700 deadline. The evidence directly satisfies the resolution criteria. No credible evidence contradicts this conclusion. ANSWER: Yes

Settlement Criteria:

Use the mempool.space blocks API for height 973900: it returns a list of blocks starting with block 973900 itself (fields id, height, timestamp, ...), or an empty list [] if block 973900 has not been mined yet. Take the entry whose height is 973900 and read its timestamp, the block header time in Unix seconds. 2026-10-31 02:45 UTC is Unix time 1793414700. Answer "Yes" if block 973900 exists and its timestamp is less than or equal to 1793414700, otherwise "No" (including when the list is empty). Valid outcomes (answer with exactly one): "Yes" or "No".

Data Sources:
https://mempool.space/api/v1/blocks/973900

Creator Stats


Creator:0x02d4...fe6a
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

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