“Will it snow in New York on Dec 25, 2026?” on Delphi

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Will it snow in New York on Dec 25, 2026?

Active Market

Miscellaneous

LMSR

Automated

Leading outcome: 50.0% • 0 trades

By: Delphi

By: Delphi • Leading outcome: 50.0% • 0 trades

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Market Probability Chart

Yes

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Trade History

0 trades

Market Stats

Trading Fee:2.00%

Liquidity:$0.00

Volume:$0.00

Created:Oct 6, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC

Trading Closes:Dec 26, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC

Earliest settlement:Dec 26, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC

Settles within 48 hours of trading close.

AI Settlement

Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5

Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if any measurable snowfall (trace or greater) is recorded at New York City's Central Park (KNYC) weather station strictly after 2026-12-25T05:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-26T05:00:00Z. - "No": Wins if no measurable snowfall (not even a trace) is recorded at New York City's Central Park (KNYC) weather station during that same window. Clarifications: - The observation window runs strictly after 2026-12-25T05:00:00Z and at or before 2026-12-26T05:00:00Z. A "trace" reading in the official record is sufficient to satisfy the snowfall threshold for "Yes".

Data Sources:

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KNYChttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00094728/detail

Creator Stats

Creator:Delphi

Markets Created:0

Markets Settled:0

Total Volume (All Time):$0.00

Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created