This market was automatically settled Nov 2, 2026, 8:24 PM UTC

Will a magnitude 4.5 or stronger earthquake strike anywhere on Earth between 18:45 UTC and 2026-11-02 19:45 UTC on Monday 2 November 2026?

Settled Market
Miscellaneous
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x02d4...fe6a • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 2, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 2, 2026, 7:45 PM UTC
Settled:Nov 2, 2026, 8:24 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user is asking if there was an earthquake of magnitude 4.5 or stronger between 18:45 UTC and 19:45 UTC on November 2, 2026. The resolution criteria specifically mention using the USGS earthquake catalog's FDSN event service, checking both the count and query endpoints. Resolver 1 says they checked both endpoints. The count endpoint returned a count of 0, and the query endpoint also showed zero features. So they concluded "No," which is option 1. Resolver 2 did the same: they checked the count endpoint and got {"count":0}, and the query endpoint had an empty features list. They also concluded "No," option 1. Both resolvers are in agreement here. They both used the exact endpoints specified in the resolution criteria and found zero earthquakes meeting the magnitude and time criteria. The market closes right at 19:45 UTC, which is the end of the time window. Since the data from USGS shows no events, the answer should be "No." There's no conflicting information here, and both resolvers back each other up. I don't see any reason to doubt their findings. So the answer is definitely 1. </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Use the USGS earthquake catalog (FDSN event service). The count endpoint returns {"count": N}, the number of earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or more with an origin time from 2026-11-02T18:45:00 UTC up to 2026-11-02T19:45:00 UTC; the query endpoint lists the same events. Use the magnitudes as shown when checked. Answer "Yes" if the count is 1 or more, otherwise "No". Valid outcomes (answer with exactly one): "Yes" or "No".

Data Sources:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/count?format=geojson&starttime=2026-11-02T18:45:00&endtime=2026-11-02T19:45:00&minmagnitude=4.5https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=geojson&starttime=2026-11-02T18:45:00&endtime=2026-11-02T19:45:00&minmagnitude=4.5&orderby=time-asc

Creator Stats


Creator:0x02d4...fe6a
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created