This market was automatically settled Nov 5, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

Will the Bundestag adopt the Electromobility Act privileges bill (Drs 21/7872) on Nov 5 with the Greens voting in favor?

Settled Market
Politics
LMSR
Automated
By: 0xFeb8...814D • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 3, 2026, 12:45 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 5, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC
Settled:Nov 5, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's see here. The market question is about whether the Bundestag will adopt the Electromobility Act privileges bill on November 5, with the Greens voting in favor. First, I need to check Resolver 1's report. They mentioned that the bill was adopted on Nov 5, referencing Drucksachen 21/7872 and 21/8406. So the "Yes" part about adoption seems satisfied. But the key part here is the Greens' vote. Resolver 1 found that the CDU/CSU and SPD voted in favor, AfD against, and the Greens along with Die Linke abstained. The resolution criteria require the Greens to vote in favor for "Yes." Since they abstained, the "Yes" condition isn't met. The "No" option wins if the Greens didn't vote in favor. The resolver used the Textarchiv source, which is one of the specified same-day readable sources. The record clearly states the Greens abstained. The resolver correctly applies the criteria: adoption is there, but the Greens' vote is not in favor. Therefore, the market resolves to "No." There's no conflicting resolver here, so I can confidently go with Resolver 1's conclusion. </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the Bundestag adopts, in second and third reading, the government bill "Entwurf eines Gesetzes zur Änderung der Bevorrechtigung der Verwendung elektrisch betriebener Fahrzeuge sowie damit zusammenhängender straßenverkehrsrechtlicher Vorschriften" (Drucksachen 21/7872 and 21/8406) in a plenary vote held strictly after 2026-11-05T05:00:00Z and at or before 2026-11-05T22:59:59Z (end of November 5, 2026, Central European Time), and the Bundestag's record of that vote states that the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens) parliamentary group (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) voted in favor. - "No": Wins if the bill is not adopted in that period (removed from the agenda, postponed, referred back to committee or rejected), or if the record states that the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens) group voted against, abstained, or was split. Clarifications: - The record is the Plenarprotokoll of the 105th session (https://dserver.bundestag.de/btp/21/21105.pdf, usually online two to three days after the session) or, as a same-day readable source, the bundestag.de Textarchiv article for the item, which after the vote states which groups voted for, against or abstained (for example "Dafür stimmten CDU/CSU, SPD und Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, dagegen die AfD-Fraktion, während die Linksfraktion sich enthielt"). - If the sources do not state how the named group voted, the question resolves "No". A roll-call vote (namentliche Abstimmung) is read by the group's majority only if the record states the group's position. - The Tagesordnung (status 2 November 2026) lists the item as TOP 13 on Thursday, November 5, 2026, planned for 2026-11-05T14:15:00Z to 2026-11-05T14:50:00Z (15:15 to 15:50 local); the published agenda can change until the session. - Only the vote on the bill in second and third reading counts; a vote on a motion on the same agenda item does not. - The bill amends the Elektromobilitätsgesetz (EmoG), whose current privileges expire on 2026-12-31.

Data Sources:
https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2026/kw45-de-elektro-fahrzeuge-1225082https://dserver.bundestag.de/btp/21/21105.pdf

Creator Stats


Creator:0xFeb8...814D
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created