This market was automatically settled Nov 5, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC

Will the Bundestag adopt the Fifth Animal Welfare Act amendment (Drs 21/6809) on Nov 5 with Die Linke voting in favor?

Settled Market
Politics
LMSR
Automated
By: 0xFeb8...814D • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

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Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

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Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 3, 2026, 12:45 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 5, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC
Settled:Nov 5, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's tackle this. The market question is whether the Bundestag will adopt the Fifth Animal Welfare Act amendment on November 5, with Die Linke voting in favor. The resolution criteria specify that "Yes" depends on both the adoption of the bill and Die Linke's favorable vote during a specific time window. Looking at Resolver 1's report: They confirm the bill was adopted, but Die Linke abstained. They cited multiple sources like heise.de and dpa, which back the abstention. Since the resolution criteria require Die Linke to vote in favor, the abstention here means it resolves to "No." Resolver 2 also points to the same-day Bundestag Textarchiv article. They outline the bill's adoption but again note that Die Linke abstained. The key point is that both resolvers agree on the outcome—Die Linke didn't vote for it. The adoption time is within the required window as well. Both reports are consistent. The criteria clearly state that if Die Linke abstains, "No" wins. There's no conflicting evidence. All sources point to the same conclusion. Since the bill was passed but Die Linke didn't vote in favor, the answer must be 1. </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the Bundestag adopts, in second and third reading, the government bill "Entwurf eines Fünften Gesetzes zur Änderung des Tierschutzgesetzes" (Drucksache 21/6809) in a plenary vote held strictly after 2026-11-05T05:00:00Z and at or before 2026-11-05T22:59:59Z (end of November 5, 2026, Central European Time), and the Bundestag's record of that vote states that the Die Linke (Left Party) parliamentary group (Die Linke) voted in favor. - "No": Wins if the bill is not adopted in that period (removed from the agenda, postponed, referred back to committee or rejected), or if the record states that the Die Linke (Left Party) group voted against, abstained, or was split. Clarifications: - The record is the Plenarprotokoll of the 105th session (https://dserver.bundestag.de/btp/21/21105.pdf, usually online two to three days after the session) or, as a same-day readable source, the bundestag.de Textarchiv article for the item, which after the vote states which groups voted for, against or abstained (for example "Dafür stimmten CDU/CSU, SPD und Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, dagegen die AfD-Fraktion, während die Linksfraktion sich enthielt"). - If the sources do not state how the named group voted, the question resolves "No". A roll-call vote (namentliche Abstimmung) is read by the group's majority only if the record states the group's position. - The Tagesordnung (status 2 November 2026) lists the item as TOP 15 a on Thursday, November 5, 2026, planned for 2026-11-05T15:25:00Z to 2026-11-05T16:00:00Z (16:25 to 17:00 local); the published agenda can change until the session. - Only the vote on the bill in second and third reading counts; a vote on a motion on the same agenda item does not. - The bill introduces mandatory video surveillance in slaughterhouses above a size threshold (short title: Fifth Act amending the Animal Welfare Act).

Data Sources:
https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2026/kw45-de-tierschutzgesetz-1225086https://dserver.bundestag.de/btp/21/21105.pdf

Creator Stats


Creator:0xFeb8...814D
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