Will AI kill us all by the end of the decade?
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AI Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2029, a globally recognised scientific, governmental, or intergovernmental body (e.g. the United Nations, WHO, or a national government) has officially declared that an artificial intelligence system is the direct or primary cause of human extinction or a near-total collapse of the global human population (loss of the overwhelming majority of all living humans). - "No": Wins if no such declaration has been made by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2029 — i.e. the human population has not been rendered extinct or near-extinct due to an AI system as confirmed by any credible scientific or governmental authority. Clarifications: - "End of the decade" is interpreted as 31 December 2029 (the final day of the 2020s decade). - "Kill us all" is interpreted as the extinction or near-extinction of the global human population (i.e. the death of the overwhelming majority of all living humans) directly caused or primarily attributed to an artificial intelligence system. - Partial harms, existential risk reports, academic forecasts, or speculative warnings — however credible — do not satisfy the "Yes" condition; only a confirmed, declared mass-extinction event attributable to AI qualifies.
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