This market was automatically settled Nov 9, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC

Will Mexico's annual headline CPI inflation for October 2026 be 3.62% or higher in INEGI's first release?

Settled Market
Economics
LMSR
Automated
By: 0xFeb8...814D • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:Yes

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

Yes50.0%
$0.50/share
No50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 3, 2026, 12:45 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 8, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
Settled:Nov 9, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

Yes

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user is asking if Mexico's annual headline CPI inflation for October 2026 will be 3.62% or higher according to INEGI's first release. The resolution criteria specify that "Yes" means INEGI published the INPC on November 9, 2026, with the annual rate at or above 3.62%, and "No" if it's 3.61% or lower or if it wasn't published by 20:00 UTC on the same day. First, both resolvers reported that INEGI did publish the October 2026 INPC on November 9, which aligns with the scheduled time (12:00 UTC on the 9th). Resolver 1 mentions that the annual inflation rate was 3.75%, which is definitely above 3.62%. Resolver 2 provides a direct source, the official PDF from INEGI, which states the annual rate as 3.75%. Resolver 1 also notes that the September rate was 3.45% and the first half of October was 3.62%, but the full October rate is the key here. Since the published annual rate is 3.75%, that meets the "Yes" condition. Resolver 2 confirms the same rate and the source, so their conclusions are in agreement. I need to check if there's any conflicting information. Both resolvers agree on the publication date and the exact figure. The resolution criteria are clear: if the rate is 3.62% or higher, it's "Yes". Since both resolvers found 3.75%, which is clearly above the threshold, and INEGI published it on the correct date, the answer should be "Yes" (option 0). No discrepancies in the evidence provided by the resolvers. So the final answer is 0. </think> ANSWER: Yes

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if INEGI publishes the monthly Índice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor (INPC) for October 2026 on 2026-11-09 and the annual headline inflation rate (inflación general anual) is 3.62% or higher, to two decimals as INEGI reports it. - "No": Wins if the published annual headline rate is 3.61% or lower, or if INEGI has not published the October 2026 INPC by 2026-11-09 20:00 UTC. Clarifications: - INEGI's 2026 release calendar lists the INPC (second half of October and monthly) for 2026-11-09 at 06:00 a.m. Mexico City time (12:00 UTC); the September bulletin states "Próxima publicación mensual: 9 de noviembre de 2026". - The figure is the headline annual rate in the INEGI bulletin for October 2026, not the first-half-of-October rate and not core inflation; later revisions do not count. - For reference, the annual rate was 3.45% in September 2026 and 3.62% in the first half of October 2026 (first-half bulletin of 2026-10-22); the October 2025 monthly change that drops out of the base was +0.36%.

Data Sources:
https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/saladeprensa/boletines/2026/inpc/inpc_2q2026_11.pdfhttps://www.inegi.org.mx/temas/inpc/

Creator Stats


Creator:0xFeb8...814D
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Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

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