This market was automatically settled Nov 5, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC

Will Bitcoin be higher at 20:00 UTC on Thursday 5 November than at 13:00 UTC on Tuesday 3 November 2026, across US election week?

Settled Market
Miscellaneous
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x02d4...fe6a • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 3, 2026, 2:19 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 5, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Settled:Nov 5, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's check both resolver reports. Resolver 1 says they got the exact timestamps from Bitstamp for both P0 and P1. P0 is $77,292.35, and P1 is $76,234.86. Since P1 is lower, the answer is No (1). Resolver 2 also checked Bitstamp and confirmed the same data. They both have the same prices and timestamps. They both applied the criteria correctly: since P1 isn't higher than P0, the answer is No. No discrepancies here. Both resolvers agree on the data sources and the conclusion. No need to use Coinbase since Bitstamp's data is available. The criteria clearly state that if P1 is strictly greater than P0, it's Yes; otherwise, No. Everything checks out. Both resolvers provided solid evidence from the specified source with correct timestamps. There's no missing data, so no ambiguity. The answer should be No. </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Use hourly BTC/USD candles from Bitstamp (first two sources) and Coinbase Exchange (last two). Each Bitstamp source returns one candle in data.ohlc whose timestamp is its start time in Unix seconds and whose open is the price at that moment; each Coinbase source returns one candle as [time, low, high, open, close, volume]. P0 is the open of the candle starting 2026-11-03 13:00 UTC (timestamp 1793710800) and P1 the open of the candle starting 2026-11-05 20:00 UTC (timestamp 1793908800). Use only a candle whose timestamp equals the one named here: before that hour Bitstamp returns its latest candle instead, so a candle with any other timestamp counts as missing. Use Bitstamp's values; use Coinbase's only if Bitstamp's candle is missing. Answer "Yes" if P1 is strictly greater than P0, otherwise "No". If no price for either time can be read, answer "No". Valid outcomes (answer with exactly one): "Yes" or "No".

Data Sources:
https://www.bitstamp.net/api/v2/ohlc/btcusd/?step=3600&limit=1&start=1793710800https://www.bitstamp.net/api/v2/ohlc/btcusd/?step=3600&limit=1&start=1793908800

Creator Stats


Creator:0x02d4...fe6a
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created