This market was automatically settled Nov 5, 2026, 3:04 AM UTC

Will a magnitude 6.0 or stronger earthquake strike anywhere on Earth between 13:00 UTC Tuesday 3 November and 02:00 UTC Thursday 5 November 2026?

Settled Market
Miscellaneous
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x02d4...fe6a • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 3, 2026, 2:19 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 5, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC
Settled:Nov 5, 2026, 3:04 AM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's see here. The market question is about whether a magnitude 6.0 or stronger earthquake happened anywhere on Earth between specific times. The created date is 2026-11-03 around 14:20 UTC, and the market closes on 2026-11-05 at 02:00 UTC. The current time is a bit after that, 03:02 UTC. So the time window specified in the question is from 13:00 UTC on the 3rd to 02:00 UTC on the 5th. Resolution criteria say to use USGS FDSN event service. The count endpoint gives the number, and if it's 1 or more, answer Yes, else No. The options are 0 for Yes and 1 for No. Resolver 1 checked both the count endpoint and the query endpoint, both returning zero. They mention the current time is 2026-11-05 T03:00 UTC, so the window is fully elapsed. So they concluded No. Resolver 2 also checked the same endpoints, count is zero and query shows empty. Same conclusion, answer No. Both resolvers agree. They used the sources suggested in the criteria and their data shows zero earthquakes in the specified time. The count is zero, so according to the resolution criteria, the answer is No. The market closed at 02:00, and the current time is after that, so the time period is definitely over. No evidence of any earthquakes. So the answer should be 1 for No. </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Use the USGS earthquake catalog (FDSN event service). The count endpoint returns {"count": N}, the number of earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or more with an origin time from 2026-11-03T13:00:00 UTC up to 2026-11-05T02:00:00 UTC; the query endpoint lists the same events with their magnitude, place and time. Use the magnitudes as shown when checked. Answer "Yes" if the count is 1 or more, otherwise "No". Valid outcomes (answer with exactly one): "Yes" or "No".

Data Sources:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/count?format=geojson&starttime=2026-11-03T13:00:00&endtime=2026-11-05T02:00:00&minmagnitude=6https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=geojson&starttime=2026-11-03T13:00:00&endtime=2026-11-05T02:00:00&minmagnitude=6&orderby=time-asc

Creator Stats


Creator:0x02d4...fe6a
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created