This market was automatically settled Nov 8, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC

Will Reno's high temperature on Nov 7, 2026 be 64 F or lower?

Settled Market
Weather
LMSR
Automated
By: 0xFeb8...814D • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 3, 2026, 12:39 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 6, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC
Settled:Nov 8, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user is asking if Reno's high temperature on November 7, 2026, will be 64°F or lower. The market closed on November 6, and the current time is November 8. The resolution criteria are based on the NWS Climate Report (CLI) for Reno-Tahoe International Airport (RNO) for that day. The key point is the maximum temperature recorded in the daily summary. Both resolvers provided their analysis. Resolver 1 found the CLIRNO product issued at 12:33 AM PST on November 8, which gives the maximum temperature as 68°F, which is above 65°F. They also mentioned corroborating data from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS showing 66.0°F. Resolver 2 also reviewed the same CLI report issued at the same time, confirming the 68°F maximum. Looking at the resolution criteria, the "No" answer is triggered if the max is 65°F or higher. Both resolvers point to the 68°F value, which clearly meets that condition. The evidence from the NWS report is authoritative and within the specified cutoff time of 13:00 UTC on November 8. There's no mention of conflicting data or later corrections. Since both resolvers agree and the evidence is solid, the answer should be 1 (No). No reason to doubt the data here, and the sources provided are credible. The event has already concluded since the CLI report was issued after the day in question. All criteria are met for the "No" outcome. </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the NWS Climate Report (CLI) for Reno-Tahoe International Airport (RNO), issued by NWS Reno, shows a maximum temperature of 64 F or lower for the calendar day 2026-11-07 (PST). - "No": Wins if the report shows a maximum temperature of 65 F or higher for that day. Clarifications: - The measure is the MAXIMUM line under TEMPERATURE (F) in the daily summary for 2026-11-07. The normal high for the date is 61 F (1991 to 2020). - The report is the NWS Climate Report (CLI) product for the station; the daily summary is for local standard time, midnight to midnight (PST, UTC-8, after daylight saving time ends on 2026-11-01). Nov 7 runs 2026-11-07T08:00:00Z to 2026-11-08T07:59:59Z. - Use the latest version of the report for 2026-11-07 issued at or before 2026-11-08T13:00:00Z. The report is normally issued about 1:30 to 2:00 AM local time on the next day; a correction (CCA, CCB) replaces the earlier version.

Data Sources:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=REV&product=CLI&issuedby=RNO

Creator Stats


Creator:0xFeb8...814D
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

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