This market was automatically settled Nov 4, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC

Will independent Dan Osborn have more votes than Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska's official US Senate count at 14:00 UTC on Wednesday 4 November 2026?

Settled Market
Miscellaneous
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x02d4...fe6a • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

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Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 3, 2026, 2:19 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 4, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC
Settled:Nov 4, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user wants to know if independent Dan Osborn will have more votes than Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska's official US Senate count by 14:00 UTC on November 4, 2026. First, the resolution criteria mention checking the Nebraska Secretary of State's unofficial results page first. If that's available and has non-zero totals, that's the primary source. If not, then use other sources like Wikipedia and Google News, but only if the primary source can't be read or shows zero. Both Resolver 1 and Resolver 2 checked the primary source at the required time (after 14:00 UTC on November 4). They both found that the page was accessible and had up-to-date results with 99.02% precincts reporting. The vote counts they reported are Ricketts at 370,411 and Osborn at 321,218. Both resolvers concluded that since Ricketts has more votes, the answer is "No" (option 1). There's no mention of the official count being different or any discrepancies between the two resolvers. Both used the same primary source and arrived at the same conclusion. The criteria clearly state that if Ricketts's total is greater than or equal to Osborn's, answer "No". Since the numbers are clear and the primary source is accessible, there's no need to refer to the secondary sources. No conflicting information here, both resolvers agree. So the final answer should be 1. </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Nebraska elects a US senator on Tuesday 3 November 2026: Republican Senator Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn (listed as "By Petition"), with three minor-party candidates. Polls close at 8 pm local time (02:00 UTC on 4 November in the Central-time east, 03:00 UTC in the Mountain-time panhandle). The first source is the Nebraska Secretary of State's unofficial statewide results page: its first contest, "For United States Senator - 6 Year Term", lists each candidate's vote total and the precincts reporting. Answer "Yes" if, when you check (at or after 2026-11-04 14:00 UTC), Osborn's vote total on that page is greater than Ricketts's. Answer "No" if Ricketts's total is greater than or equal to Osborn's. Only if that page cannot be read or still shows 0 total votes, use the other sources (the top section of Wikipedia's article on the race and a Google News search for the race) and answer "Yes" only if they report that the Associated Press or at least two major US networks projected Osborn the winner; otherwise answer "No". Valid outcomes (answer with exactly one): "Yes" or "No".

Data Sources:
https://electionresults.nebraska.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SW&map=CTYhttps://en.wikipedia.org/w/api.php?action=query&prop=revisions&rvprop=content&rvsection=0&titles=2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nebraska&format=json&formatversion=2

Creator Stats


Creator:0x02d4...fe6a
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
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Settle Percentage:0%

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