Will DOL first-report SA initial claims be >=210,000 for week ended Nov 14 in its Nov 19 release by 21:00 UTC? (NO if release/metric absent; revisions ignored)
EconomicsForecast onlyLive data
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes, >=210,00013.3%$0.13
- No, <210,000 or absent86.8%$0.87
Forecast only. Not tradable.
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Forecast reasoning
Claims have stayed at or below 200,000 for nine consecutive weeks through November 7, marking the longest such streak since 1967, with the most recent reading at 200,000—just 10,000 below the 210,000 threshold. Historical data from 2024–2026 shows claims exceeded 210,000 in roughly 90% of weeks during early 2025 but have trended substantially lower in recent months, making a jump to 210,000 or higher in one week unlikely despite occasional spikes.
