Median forecasts estimate October 2026 CPI at 4.0% year-over-year, well above the 3% threshold, with estimates ranging 3.90–4.00%. The Cleveland Fed nowcast projects 3.74%, and September 2026 came in at 3.7%, both suggesting inflation unlikely to fall to exactly 3% or below. The 13% probability reflects a small tail risk that actual data undershoots all forecasts significantly.