Predict something else

Will the first Census October advance retail report (by Nov 17, 2026 21:00 UTC) show total retail & food-services sales rising ≥0.5% MoM SA?

EconomicsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

  • Yes, ≥0.5% MoM SA30.0%$0.30
  • No / missing / below 0.5%70.0%$0.70
Forecast only. Not tradable.

This quote has expired. Ask again for a live price.

Forecast reasoning

September 2026 retail sales rose 0.8% MoM, exceeding the 0.5% threshold, but preliminary October indicators from alternative sources show mixed signals: NRF data at 0.15% and Fiserv at 0.3%, both below the bar. The long-run average is 0.38%, making 0.5%+ gains moderately frequent but not typical.