“Will the first Census Q3 2026 retail e-commerce share in Table 1 Adjusted (1 decimal) be ≥17.5% by Nov 19, 2026 at 22:00 UTC?” on Delphi

Will the first Census Q3 2026 retail e-commerce share in Table 1 Adjusted (1 decimal) be ≥17.5% by Nov 19, 2026 at 22:00 UTC?

EconomicsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Yes, ≥17.5%11.8%$0.12
No, <17.5% or no release88.3%$0.88

Forecast only. Not tradable.

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Forecast reasoning

Q3 2026 e-commerce share data releases November 19, 6 days away. Latest available Q2 2026 adjusted share was 17.1%, just below the 17.5% threshold, with year-over-year growth of 0.8 percentage points suggesting modest upward momentum but insufficient to confidently clear the higher bar.