“Will the first NWS KNYC temp observation timestamped Nov 14 18:00–18:59 UTC 2026 be below 10°C?” on Delphi

Will the first NWS KNYC temp observation timestamped Nov 14 18:00–18:59 UTC 2026 be below 10°C?

WeatherForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Below 10°C (or missing)76.5%$0.77
10°C or above23.5%$0.24

Forecast only. Not tradable.

We could not pin down how this would settle, so there is no market to trade. The odds stand.

Forecast reasoning

Multiple forecasts predict temperatures around 6-9°C at 6 pm UTC on November 14, with several models showing readings below 10°C during the 18:00-18:59 UTC window. The National Weather Service projects a high near 9°C for that day, and TimeAndDate hourly data shows approximately 7°C at 6 pm UTC, supporting the elevated probability.